Notes from the frontier.
- April 20, 2026·8 min read·Ilhan Valani
1.1 billion Polymarket trades just went open-source
A team led out of the Shanghai Innovation Institute just released 107 GB of Polymarket history — every trade, every market, every user address since launch. MIT license. On the one hand, this is the dataset the category has been waiting for. On the other, retail has to actually know what to do with it.
#research #data #industryRead → - April 19, 2026·8 min read·Ilhan Valani
The retail interface for prediction markets doesn't exist yet
Every tool being built for prediction markets in 2026 is aimed at funds with a Bloomberg terminal. Retail — the people who actually called the 2024 election three days early — is using Discord screenshots and a notes app. That is the gap, and it's the most interesting product hole in finance right now.
#retail #interface #productRead → - April 18, 2026·8 min read·Ilhan Valani
Prediction markets are Gen Z's equities
My dad bought Apple at $14 and held it through three splits. Good advice. I'm not going to take it, and neither is anyone I know under twenty-five. This is the asset class we're going to build a generation around, and I can explain why.
#thesis #markets #generationsRead →