Chen
Every thesis. On the record.
- 01One thesis, one to five legs. Picked across the twelve venues.
- 02Stand behind a number. Implied probability per leg, captured at publish.
- 03Vigilance follows you. Tykhy scores at resolution. The grade follows you everywhere.
The teams of the league.
Factions are research tribes — university clubs, friend groups, Discord inner circles. Members publish Crates. Everyone sees what the group actually thinks.
Read the league.
News pinned to live markets across twelve venues, plus a category heat map. Your morning desk for the league.
Track every position.
Type positions or paste a public Polymarket wallet — multiple portfolios, live PnL, resolution alerts. Zero custody, ever.
What Tykhy sees that they don't.
Three product surfaces inside the app, anchored to live PM markets. Click to switch.
Insider velocity flag. Q4 typical $4.2M sold, currently $28.4M (6.8x). Nine of twelve analyst grades upgraded last 30 days.
Dispersion alert. FMP model and Kalshi venue diverge by 4pp. Catch where the venue is mispricing.
Read the league live.
Friends, head-to-head. Whale flow, live. Markets, moving.
Why we are building this.
A briefing on what Tykhy is, why prediction markets need a research and community workspace, and what the league is for. Direct from the founder.
Frequently asked.
What can I actually do inside the app?
Discover markets across all twelve venues in one feed. Track positions with live PnL, resolution countdowns, and three different chart metrics. Publish Crates (a thesis with 1-5 legs) to your faction and get scored by Vigilance calibration. Talk to your portfolio with the AI copilot. Wire notifications to Slack, Discord, Telegram, MS Teams, or desktop. Simulate what-if scenarios. Watch Market Movers and Whale Activity live. And many more — all on a single workspace.
What actually is a Crate?
A thesis with 1-5 legs. "Fed holds through Q3" could be three Kalshi rate-decision markets and one Polymarket recession contract. You publish to your faction, the faction sees the reasoning, Vigilance calibration tracks how your theses resolve over time. Polymarket legs can also be executed in one click — your wallet signs, Tykhy never holds your funds or keys.
How is your AI different from asking ChatGPT or Grok in a browser?
ChatGPT doesn't know your positions. Tykhy's copilot reads your actual book before it answers. Ask "what's my biggest risk today" and you get the specific market, your exposure, and a concrete suggestion — not a generic lecture on prediction markets.
What's a faction and why do I want one?
A faction is your research tribe — a university investment club, a friend group, a Discord inner circle. Members publish Crates, you see what the group actually thinks about each market, and the leaderboard ranks members by who's been right most often over time.
Who is this actually built for?
Anyone interested in prediction markets — from casual followers checking once a week to serious forecasters publishing weekly Crates. If you're keeping a thesis notebook, arguing picks in a group chat, or trying to track whether your calls were actually calibrated — Tykhy collapses all of it into one workspace. Metaculus discipline, StockTwits social layer, twelve-venue coverage.